Monthly Archives: January 2024

Will 2024 Be Even Better?

Posted on January 30, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

The Mortgage Corner The US economy grew either 2.5 percent or 3.1 percent annually in 2023, whichever GDP growth indicator you choose. Why such strong growth when the rest of the world is still recovering from the COVID pandemic? Even … Continue reading →

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US Economy Has Landed

Posted on January 25, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Popular Economics Weekly There is no longer any doubt with the initial estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth just in. The US economy has made a soft landing. The economy grew 3.3 percent in Q4 after a 4.9 percent increase … Continue reading →

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Much Less Pessimism

Posted on January 23, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Financial FAQs Is the Irrational Pessimism I’ve been writing about finally turning into a more rational optimism that reflects how consumers see the current economy? The two major measures of consumer confidence—the Conference Board’s Confidence Index and University of Michigan’s … Continue reading →

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Housing Recession Over?

Posted on January 19, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

The Mortgage Corner Is the housing recession over? The conforming 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.60 percent this week, according to Freddie Mac. The fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose to its maximum 7.8 percent in October 2023 before gradually descending … Continue reading →

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No Recession At All?

Posted on January 17, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Popular Economics Weekly Ho hum, another good economic number. December retail sales are telling us why we have avoided a recession this year. It’s because consumers have increased rather than reduced their spending ways. Sales at retailers jumped +0.6 percent … Continue reading →

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Why the Irrational Pessimism–Part II

Posted on January 16, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Financial FAQs I said a week ago that public polls seem to be saying one thing, economic facts another. Real Clear Politics’ compendium of 11 opinion polls on whether participants approve or disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the economy … Continue reading →

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First Signs of Deflation Appearing

Posted on January 13, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

The Mortgage Corner Today’s Producer Price Index for Final Demand, a measure of the cost of wholesale prices, provides the first concrete evidence that we may be entering a period of deflation this New Year. And, perhaps require the Fed … Continue reading →

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Please Get Inflation Picture Right!

Posted on January 11, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Financial FAQs Today’s news that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was “slightly hotter than expected”, per the Wall Street Journal, caused financial markets to plunge on the assumption the Fed will reduce interest rates more slowly than markets would like … Continue reading →

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When Has Inflation Declined This Quickly?

Posted on January 9, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

The Mortgage Corner When was the last time inflation rates declined this steeply? You guessed right if you said the Great Recession. Calculated Risk’s colorful graph of various inflation indicators (gray bars are recessions) shows the history of Core CPI … Continue reading →

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Still Fully Employed!

Posted on January 5, 2024 by Popular Economics Weekly

Popular Economics Weekly Ho hum. The U.S. economy was still fully employed in December. How boring! The St. Louis Fed (FRED) graph below shows the American economy has been at full employment since December 2021 when the unemployment rate first … Continue reading →

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