“It’s Not About Me…”

Popular Economics Weekly

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FRED

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is sounding like President Roosevelt when he intones, “It’s not about me, it’s about we.” in his morning COVID-19 press conferences.

President Roosevelt most famously said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” in his first inaugural address at the beginning of the Great Depression. Roosevelt was telling us we could conquer a Great Depression if we conquered our fears and came together to fight economic collapse.

We could be entering another such depression, though this downturn will probably be much shorter. The March 8.7 percent plunge in U.S. retail sales is the first major indication of the effects of the business shutdown and shelter-in-place mandates.

The severest part of the oncoming recession could  last only a matter of months if we listen to the health care experts and do the required testing and contact tracing required to prevent a further spread of the novel coronavirus in all 50 states.

But the abrupt shutdown of businesses with consumers unable to shop outside of buying necessities will cause a horrific decline in economic growth—on the order of 3 to 6 percent, according to the IMF, depending on how closely Americans follow the stay-at-home recommendations.

And there are more pessimistic scenarios. For instance, if the pandemic lasts into 2021, it could reduce the level of global GDP by 8 percent compared with the baseline, said Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s top economist.

Retail sales sank 27 percent at auto dealers and 17 percent at gas stations, two of biggest segments of the retail industry, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Fewer people are buying cars with millions of Americans losing their jobs and millions more worrying about their next paycheck.

“Americans also drove less as an economic shutdown spread across the country, exacerbating already steep price declines caused by a global price war that has cut the cost of crude oil by two-thirds in just a few months,” said MarketWatch’s Greg Robb, commenting on the retail sales figures.

It may console us a bit that the 1930s were a much different time. The Great Depression only became ‘Great’ because it lasted 10 years over two successive recessions, until the beginning of World War II.  This COVID-19 pandemic doesn’t have to be a repeat if we keep the necessary safeguards in place long enough to prevent successive recurrences of the pandemic.

Governor Cuomo’s words could end up to be as historically significant in helping to inspire Americans, for they signal what Americans must also conquer—the narcissism exemplified by our Narcissist-in-Chief and his political party—in order to work together and ignore political affiliations and ethnic divisions.

It takes a certain kind of selflessness that many are showing in banding together to supplement the shortage of PPE masks and clothing, while states work together to supply each other with medical equipment, including scarce ventilators.

This is while we see President Trump’s fumbling responses to the pandemic that so exemplifies the personality disorder we seem to have been living through as a country. Maybe this worldwide pandemic will bring us out of the Age of Narcissism itself, the ‘me first’ attitude that has been the byword for the fragmentation of the U.S. into blue states and red states, white vs. brown skins, and native-born vs. immigrant divisions that our Narcissist-in-Chief has fomented to enhance his own political power.

President Roosevelt in the 1932 speech also said, “…we now realize as we have never realized before our interdependence on each other; that we can not merely take but we must give as well; that if we are to go forward, we must move as a trained and loyal army willing to sacrifice for the good of a common discipline, because without such discipline no progress is made, no leadership becomes effective.”

Simply put, we can no longer think of just ‘me’, if we want to survive this pandemic and prevent another Great Depression.

Harlan Green © 2020

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Collaboration vs. Confrontation—Who Wins?

Financial FAQs

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theverge.com

Is the era of trickle-down economics, of Reagonomics that saw so much wealth redistributed to the top 1 percent, finally ending? Yes, if we want to really ‘cure’ the pandemic decimating the U.S. and world economies, because the pandemic has brought out all the weaknesses of an economic system that has boosted the wealth of the top 10 percent of college-educated and left everyone else to the mercies of globalization and a service economy that barely pays living wages.

“For seven decades after World War II, the notion that global trade enhances security and prosperity prevailed across major economies,” said a recent Sunday NYTimes Op-ed by Peter Goodman, et. al.…”But in many countries—especially the United States—a stark failure by governments to equitably distribute the bounty has undermined faith in trade, giving way to a protectionist mentality in which goods and resources are viewed as zero-sum.”

So it turns out that to defeat the ‘novel’ coronavirus we must create a new sharing society and caring world that prevents the hoarding of the resources to defeat it, which will also preserve our democracy that was built in the seventy years after WWII expressly to prevent another Stalin, Hitler and Emperor Hirohito of Japan.

Americans are now staring at the possibility of another Great Depression because of Covid-19. The unemployment rate is expected to soar, as more than 20 million members of our 150 million work force will be out of work for a prolonged time due to COVID-19.

Unless we find a new capitalist model of sharing—that mitigates the record income disparities of rich and poor last seen before the Great Depression—neither a novel coronavirus solution nor a robust economic recovery is possible.

Compounding the problem of returning to economic health is that the ‘cure’ of a prolonged national lockdown will be worse than the ‘problem’ of returning to economic growth to achieve it.

There will be incredible suffering at the bottom rung of the economic latter, and it will be the communities and countries that know how to collaborate rather than compete with each other for resources and knowledge that will recover most quickly.

That is because in the words of Robert Shiller, the 2013 Novel Prize recipient, there is a second, anxiety pandemic that we must live through, and that white, non-college educated males, in particular, are still living through.

Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton, a 2015 Nobel Prize recipient, say such men are dying of drug overdoses, drink-induced liver disease and suicide — what they call Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalismin their best-seller of that title.

“We are feeling the anxiety effects of not one pandemic but two,” said Dr. Shiller in a recent Project-Syndicate article. “First, there is the COVID-19 pandemic, which makes us anxious because we, or people we love, anywhere in the world, might soon become gravely ill and even die. And, second, there is a pandemic of anxiety about the economic consequences of the first.”

And that is what only governments can do—enforce the cooperation needed to defeat the virus and consequent anxiety. It is what President Roosevelt did in the New Deal, because of the necessity of recovering from the Great Depression and a 25 percent unemployment rate.

This is also what a historical study of the other major international pandemic in the past century—the Spanish flu pandemic—has shown. It was those communities and cities that learned the art of cooperation and banded together to help each other, pooled their resources that had the lowest death rates and recovered most quickly.

Like the Spanish flu, this pandemic has no borders that can be shut down, no particular region or ethnic group that is immune. This is a borderless disease that requires a borderless response from every member of humanity to defeat it.

Former Obama UN Ambassador Samantha Power sounded the alarm in a recent NYTimes Op-ed: “…despite Washington’s own bungled domestic response, we nonetheless must immediately begin to build a broad and determined global anti-covid coalition. Such a coalition must create hubs for sharing scientific data in the virus, testing and vaccine efforts, taking advantage of our ability to learn from infection cycles that have peaked earlier…Unless the United States exerts leadership to prevent Covid-19 from raging out of control abroad, the crisis will not end at home.”

So let us jettison the myth of self-reliance that ignores the welfare of others in the name of private ownership of everything, and the government ownership of nothing, except military weaponry.

Richard Geldard, Author of ‘Emerson and the Dream of America: Finding Our Way to a New and Exceptional Agetitled this chapter “The New Self-Reliance”, “…because it is clear now that since Emerson’s first assertions of this theme 140 years ago, we may have assimilated personally and culturally some of the language and substance of his intention, but what remains is the actual work and its realization to a larger sphere.”

By that larger sphere, Geldard means self-discovery must lead to a larger meaning of life—the recognition we all belong to one species, and only as one family of nations can we survive a worldwide pandemic—whether it is COVID-19, or the lingering effects of overwhelming anxiety—by recognizing our inter-connectedness.

Harlan Green © 2020

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Consumer Sentiment in the Dumps

Financial FAQs

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MarketWatch

Consumer sentiment is plunging.  And why not? With an additional 6.6 million initial unemployment compensation claims this week, it brings the total in just the past three weeks to 16.8 million since the COVID-19 national lockdown of businesses and stay-in-home orders, according to the Labor Department.

It has already pushed the revised March unemployment rate to 5.4 percent, but it could easily top 10 percent in future months if unemployment claims rise to +20 million, say economists. That would top numbers for the Great Recession.

The University of Michigan preliminary April sentiment survey sank to a 7-year low of 71.0. The current conditions component bore the brunt of the deterioration, falling 31 points to 72.4.  Expectations posted a smaller decline, with that index falling just ten points, albeit to a lower level of 70.0.  The record low for the monthly Michigan headline index is 51.7, set 40 years ago, and that could be repeated.

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U.ofMichigan

“Consumer sentiment plunged 18.1 Index-points in early April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded,” said surveys chief economist Richard Curtin. “When combined with last month’s decline, the two-month drop of 30.0 Index-points was 50% larger than the prior record. Of the two Index components, the Current Conditions Index plunged by 31.3 Index-points, nearly twice the prior record decline of 16.6 points set in October 2008.”

This is serious for a number of reasons. It affects consumer spending, the main engine of economic growth, but we also can’t ignore the psychological effects of such a worldwide pandemic, which Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller labels a second anxiety pandemic that causes irrational behaviors—both financially and personally—in a prolonged business shutdown.

“It is not good news when two pandemics are at work simultaneously,” he said in a recent Project-Syndicate column. “One can feed the other. Business closures, soaring unemployment, and loss of income fuel financial anxiety, which may, in turn, deter people, desperate for work, from taking adequate precautions against the spread of the disease.”

An anxiety pandemic can cause a deeper recession, as consumers save more and spend less over a longer period as well. Starbucks is already reporting a drop in same-store coffee sales of 60-70 percent, reports MarketWatch. Its only business during the lockdown is takeout or drive-thru pickups, which might become even more prevalent during and after lifting of the lockdown if such changes in consumer behavior become permanent.

Such a jarring economic disruption—even if it doesn’t rise to the level of a Great Depression or Recession—has to cause permanent changes in behavior.

The loss of consumer confidence can be deadly to any recovery. We already know about the mounting Deaths of Despair with the rise in drug addiction, alcoholism, suicides among the long term unemployed, and can only hope this ‘medically induced’ work stoppage isn’t prolonged.

Harlan Green © 2020

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When Will it End?

Popular Economics Weekly

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COVID-19 Tracking Project/Calculated Risk

When will the pandemic end and recovery begin, is the question asked of every expert and non-expert.  Foremost of the experts is former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen who in a recent CNBC interview commented on just when the U.S. economy might be taken out of its “medically-induced coma” (to use Paul Krugman’s words), and return to growth.

She and other leading economists are saying it will depend on how quickly and thoroughly the novel coronavirus testing and contact tracking (tracing of infected persons back to their source) is done.

Research from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic has shown that cities and regions with the strictest lockdown protocols, including longer lockdown periods, had the lowest death rates and strongest recoveries.

Los Angeles and Oakland, California were among cities that had the lowest death rates and strongest recoveries in 1918, whereas heavily industrialized Pittsburgh and Philadelphia didn’t follow as strict guidelines and suffered the most, said the study.

Calculated Risk’s above graph portrays the increase in testings from the COVID Tracking Project today, and just how daunting is the challenge to track all infected persons. The total U.S. percent positive over the last 24 hours was 19 percent (red line).  The US needs enough tests to push the percentage below 5 percent (probably much lower), said Calculated Risks’ Bill McBride.

Today’s results also prove the 1918 Spanish flu outcomes. New York, late in calling for a statewide lockdown, is the center of the pandemic with 131,000 that have tested positive, and 190,000 tested negative as of Monday.

Whereas California with the largest U.S. population was one of the first to call for the statewide lockdown and had 14,336 testing positive and 115,364 testing negative. The difference in mortality is also stark: California had 343 deaths, whereas New York 4,758 deaths as of Monday.

Economists are looking at various recovery scenarios for this worldwide contraction that in no way resembles either the Great Depression or Great Recession. In those cases there was a sharp decline in aggregate demand—the collective spending of consumers, investors, and governments—which induced a collapse in industrial production. The unemployment rate had soared to 25 percent, the highest on record—until now.

But today’s pandemic has halted both production (the business shutdown) and consumption (because of stay-in-home requirement) simultaneously when the economy still was fairly strong, hence the induced coma.

Here is the Conference Board’s graph for the three most common scenarios once again. Professor Yellen said she hopes a Fall scenario (per graph) is most likely; or what is called a ‘U’ shaped recovery that needs at least two quarters to return to actual GDP growth.

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Conference Board

But that can’t happen until and unless this novel coronavirus is tamed sufficiently to allow our country to return to work. And that is dependent on a better coordinated response that brings down the infection and death rates within months.

But there is the possibility COVID-19 may return in the upcoming winter, as did the 1918 Spanish flu, and even continue to recur annually if a majority of Americans aren’t vaccinated and immunity isn’t built up in at least 75 percent of all U.S. residents.

If this is like a World War, as some have intimated, then we need a Commander-in-Chief who knows how to lead a coordinated strategy, and not be the “back-up” General.

Harlan Green © 2020

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U.S. Loses 701,000 Jobs in March

Financial FAQs

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MarketWatch

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it, said the BLS. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

More than 10 million unemployment compensation claims were filed in the last two weeks, which is just the beginning of what could be many more job losses. Most were in the service sector, where the Leisure and Hospitality sector losing the most jobs, Education and health services lost 52,000, and Transportation lost 46,200 jobs.

MarketWatch’s Jeffry Bartash said a separate survey of households gave a more accurate view of what was happening. Employment measured by the household survey showed a 3 million decline in the number of people who said they were working. And 1.6 million people just dropped out of the labor force.

Just the fact that so many service workers are being laid off will not help the recovery, since they are mostly lower-paid jobs and therefore lower-spending consumers, who keep the economy functioning on many levels. E.g., fewer transportation workers mean slower deliveries, right? It will also mean a huge hit to consumer spending, which powers some two-thirds of GDP growth.

Economic growth projections have also been down-sized, with Goldman Sachs now predicting negative GDP growth for the first three quarters of this year.  Let’s hope that is all the damage.

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Wrightson/ICAP

This Wrightson graph portrays the straight-line drop of March payrolls, which almost equals that of the 2008-09 Great Recession. Let’s hope this one doesn’t last as long.

Harlan Green © 2020

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Housing in the Time of COVID-19

The Mortgage Corner

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Wolf Street

I reported in January that housing construction was slowly recovering, in part due to the extreme housing shortage and record low interest rates. Well, rates are even lower today, but purchase applications are now plunging as will new-home sales, whereas I believe refinancing will continue to surge because of even lower mortgage rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

So it’s good to know the Fed is also supporting the mortgage-backed securities market with its Quantitative Easing from the latest $2 billion bailout bill, since the mortgage market is suffering from the same credit crunch as every other part of the fiancé industry.

And who wants to buy a home in this lockdown that could last months, anyway? Reports are coming in that home buying is also frozen in place, while everyone waits out the pandemic.

Wolf Richter for the financial blog Wolf Street writes, “In states where lockdowns started first – they were kicked off in the San Francisco Bay Area – the year-over-year plunge in purchase-mortgage applications was the most severe:

  • California: -36.4%
  • New York: -35.6%
  • Washington: -32.5%

Purchase mortgage applications plunged another 11 percent after dropping 24 percent from the equivalent week a year ago. Since the multi-year peak in January, purchase-mortgage applications have plunged by one-third, said the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Whereas the MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 15.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This is because refinancing per the Refinance Index increased 26 percent from the previous week and was 168 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates and applications continue to experience significant volatility from the economic and financial market uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis. After two weeks of sizeable increases, mortgage rates dropped back to the lowest level in MBA’s survey, which in turn led to a 25 percent jump in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

“The bleaker economic outlook, along with the first wave of realized job losses reported in last week’s unemployment claims numbers, likely caused potential homebuyers to pull back,” he continued.

There will be an even more severe housing shortage, in other words, with more than 500,000 homeless living on the streets in January. Homelessness will now increase with the new coronavirus pandemic, as the many without government-insured mortgages (GSEs) from Fannie, Freddie, FHA, and the VA will probably lose their homes, if they cannot keep up their loan payments. HUD’s Federal Housing and Finance Authority has said the requirement that lenders hold off on foreclosures for one year only applies to the GSEs the FHFA regulates.

And so the housing shortage will continue. In many markets, this will mean no open houses (for new-home purchases). Face-to-face closings are to be avoided.

“But exchanging signed documents through car windows in a parking lot is OK. Under the pressure of social distancing, the doors have opened to modern document technology. In theory, homes can be sold, and mortgages can be written, but it’s now a different ballgame,” says Richter.

It will require even greater government support to keep people in their homes for the duration of the novel coronavirus pandemic; and beyond?

Harlan Green © 2020

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Might We Have More Than One Pandemic?

Popular Economics Weekly

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Wrightson/ICAP

Yes, says behavioral economist Robert Shiller, who won his Nobel prize for the study of human behavior in financial markets. Why? Financial market investors are panicking because of the COVID-19 pandemic, for starters, which could affect the general public’s financial behavior as well, and so wreak even more damage to crashing financial markets.

“We are feeling the anxiety effects of not one pandemic but two,” said Dr. Shiller in a recent Project-Syndicate article. “First, there is the COVID-19 pandemic, which makes us anxious because we, or people we love, anywhere in the world, might soon become gravely ill and even die. And, second, there is a pandemic of anxiety about the economic consequences of the first.”

The first indication of a looming loss of confidence in the economy and jobs is showing up in consumer sentiment surveys, per Wrightson’s above graph. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell by 12 percent in March. 

The Conference Board’s confidence survey fell as well.

“Consumer confidence declined sharply in March due to a deterioration in the short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index remained relatively strong, reflective of an economy that was on solid footing, and prior to the recent surge in unemployment claims. However, the intensification of COVID-19 and extreme volatility in the financial markets have increased uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and jobs. March’s decline in confidence is more in line with a severe contraction – rather than a temporary shock – and further declines are sure to follow.

Dr. Shiller knows a lot about human behavior, and the irrational behavior of financial market investors. He wrote about irrational exuberance in his best-seller of that name in 2000, just as the Dot-com bubble burst from overinvestment building the digital infrastructure (remember all those fiber-optic cable networks being laid?).

And the Great Recession was caused by the busted housing bubble—due to home buyers bidding up housing prices to stratospheric heights because of the popular thought that housing prices could never decline—another example of irrational exuberance.

Now what about its opposite—irrational pessimism, or a contagion of fear that stock prices have no visible bottom; or a cure or vaccine will not be found in time to save many companies from bankruptcies, due to a prolongation of social isolation and business shutdowns?

“The effects financial anxiety has on the stock market may be mediated by a phenomenon that psychologist Paul Slovic of the University of Oregon and his colleagues call the “affect heuristic,” said Shiller. “When people are emotionally upset because of a tragic event, they react with fear even in circumstances where there is no reason to fear.”

Dr. Shiller’s research has found that people tend to react to rumor, word-of-mouth, or popular media stories rather than actual facts.

In a joint paper with William Goetzmann and Dasol Kim, for example, Shiller found that people living within 30 miles of the epicenter of a substantial earthquake significantly raise their expectation that there could be a 1929- or 1987-size stock market crash.

Similar fears may have caused the plunge in market asset values today, where interest rates and Treasury bond yields have plunged to historic lows as investors flee to save haven investments in order to preserve their cash.

While many Americans might have faith in upcoming cures for COVID-19, they might not have such faith in a restoration of the economy and jobs. It took years for markets to recover from the Great Recession, even with the Fed holding their rates to almost zero.

I maintain that we will need some form of a New Deal, or even Green New Deal—prolonged market interventions by government in a word—to reassure Americans and the rest of the world that the second, anxiety pandemic can be controlled as well.

Harlan Green © 2020

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The Cure Has To Be Worse Than the Problem

Financial FAQs

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Federal Reserve

President Trump on Sunday announced that he was extending his administrations guidelines on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic to April 30. He seems to have taken the recommendation of his top scientific advisors Drs. Fauci and Brix to heart, backing away from his assertion that the virus will have diminished enough to be able to celebrate Easter Sunday on April 12 in churches.

Why did he change his tune?  Dr. Fauci said Sunday on CNN’s “Face the Nation” that the novel coronavirus could kill from 100,000 to 200,000 people while infecting millions of others, though he said that the virus was difficult to model this early in the outbreak.

Recent scientific research and mounting anecdotal evidence show the more severe the ‘cure’, including longer social isolation and business closures, the quicker the return to economic growth once it is lifted.

Researchers from the Federal Reserve in a recent study of the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people, cited recently by MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein, found that the more draconian the ‘cure’ in tamping down the initial spread, the more lives were saved and there was a more robust economic recovery as well.

The 1918 Flu Pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920, and it spread worldwide. It is estimated that about 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population, became infected with the virus. The number of deaths is estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide, with about 550,000 to 675,000 occurring in the United States.

“Most U.S. cities applied a wide range of NPIs in fall 1918 during the second and most deadly wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic,” said the study. “The measures applied include social distancing measures such as the closure of schools, theaters, and churches, the banning of mass gatherings, but also other measures such as mandated mask wearing, case isolation, making influenza a notifiable disease, and public disinfection/hygiene measures.”

What are the economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic was the central question of the study. And given that it was a worldwide epidemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social isolation and quarantining of the infected?

“Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity,” said the study.

“(Yet) We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over,” said the study, “our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.”

And there are increasing signs that the most draconian measures to contain the current COVID-19 pandemic by countries such as China, Singapore, and South Korea shortened the recovery period.

Similar results are also coming in from Germany and the Netherlands that have reacted the quickest to the pandemic and are showing lower rates of infection.

Data from Germany shows just 0.4 percent of people who tested positive for the virus have died from it, much less than the 9.5 percent in Italy and 4.3 percent in France. In the Netherlands growth in transmissions of the virus have also slowed significantly.

The Fed’s Spanish flu study found that while reacting 10 days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given city increases manufacturing employment by around 5 percent in the post period, the researchers said, implementing restrictions for an additional 50 days increases manufacturing employment by 6.5 percent after the pandemic abates.

The vertical line in the Fed’s graph above measured mortality rate, while the horizontal line measured employment changes. And, the lower death rate correlated with higher employment.

“…we find that early and extensive NPIs have no adverse effect on local economic outcomes. On the contrary, cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experience a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic. Altogether, our findings suggest that pandemics can have substantial economic costs, and NPIs can have economic merits, beyond lowering mortality.”

President Trump first intoned “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem,” at the beginning of the pandemic. The experts are saying just the opposite. Unless we allow a worse cure, the problem of a return to normal economic activity from an almost ground zero of business activity, can be prolonged.

Harlan Green © 2020

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The Coronavirus—A New World War

Popular Economics Weekly

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Conference Board

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has said it might take an alien invasion to bring Americans together again to counter the threat of another economic downturn possibly as great as the Great Depression.

Well, the new threat has arrived—COVID-19, the ‘new’ coronavirus. The only way it will be defeated is if Americans can come together as we once did with the creation of the New Deal under President Roosevelt.

Today, unfortunately, we have a president who would like us to gather together in churches on April 12, Easter Sunday, to celebrate our deliverance from a pandemic that will not end for months, if not years.

He has named himself a “wartime” president yet wants to declare an armistice before the enemy has been vanquished. Why? He said, “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem.”

But the cure will be worse because the social isolation and business shutdown required to keep the coronavirus pandemic even in check can take months; enough time to bring on a recession or depression.  And in fact it will take another New Deal, or Green New Deal to defeat the economic damage caused by new coronavirus.

Economists such as Nouriel Rubini predict we could be entering a “greater” Great Depression, even with the just-passed $2 trillion aid package that gives extended benefits to all business sectors and the unemployed.

“With the COVID-19 pandemic still spiraling out of control, the best economic outcome that anyone can hope for is a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis. But given the flailing policy response so far, the chances of a far worse outcome are increasing by the day,” he said in Project-Syndicate.

The Conference Board has predicted in three scenarios just what could be the effects of this worldwide pandemic on the U.S. economy.

  1. May reboot (quick recovery): Assuming a peak in new COVID-19 cases for the US as a whole by mid-April (with some possible variation by region), economic activity may gradually resume beginning in May.
  2. Summertime V-shape (deeper contraction, bigger recovery): The peak in new COVID-19 cases will be higher and delayed until May, creating a larger economic contraction in Q2 but a stronger recovery in Q3 than in the scenario above.
  3. Fall recovery (extended contraction): Managed control of the outbreak helps to flatten the curve of new COVID-19 cases and stretches the economic impact across Q2 and Q3, with growth resuming by September.

The April scenario is President Trump’s wish, but he would have had to act as fast and methodically as China’s Premier Xi Jinping. That can’t happen when Trump has labeled himself as a “wartime” president but has been reluctant to use the War Powers Act that would order private industry to produce what health care workers lack now to protect themselves while treating the mushrooming population of COVID-19 victims.

The other two scenarios are called ‘V’ and ‘U’-shaped recoveries by economists, meaning the recoveries would take longer. The V-shape means a quicker recovery with a more severe downturn, as can be seen in the Conference Board graph. The ‘U’ shape means the downturn and return to growth is more gradual and over a longer term.

All of the Conference Board’s predictions posit a return to GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.

But not so fast, says Dr. Rubini: “While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the COVID-19 crisis is something else entirely. The contraction that is now underway looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting.”

Which scenario will it be? It’s obvious that the just-passed $2 trillion recovery package will keep this economy alive for a few months only. Additional aid will be required, when the initial jobless claims for just this week reported 3.28 million new unemployment claims.

The Great Depression lasted 10 years, and the layoffs have just begun for this downturn. Our best hope is that a new vaccine and treatment regimen is discovered sooner rather than later. But also that Americans are able to band together to create a ‘new’ econo,ic New Deal that protects all Americans.

Harlan Green © 2020

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Housing Market Will Survive Coronavirus

The Mortgage Corner

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NAHB.org

What happens to housing with the COVID-19 pandemic? It had been on the road to recovery with record low interest rates; so much so that single-family housing starts have been soaring since 2019 as more millennials have formed families and entered the housing market.

But can this last? A recent LATimes survey of homebuilders showed that builders were continuing to complete projects and selling them online (sales offices have closed, so no onsite visits allowed by prospective buyers), but not starting new construction or buying new housing sites, until there is more certainty about the U.S. economy that could lose as many as 3 million jobs during the current downturn, according to some forecasts.

HUD estimates there were 1.5 million housing starts in February, The three-month moving average for single-family construction is currently at a post-recession high. Single-family starts increased 6.7 percent to a 1,072,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace in February. Multifamily starts for units in 5+ unit properties declined 17 percent to a 508,000 annualized rate after a strong yet unsustainable start for 2020 for apartment construction.

There’s a reason for the sky-high demand for housing, especially in California. Rents have soared 40 percent from 2000 to 2018, whereas incomes have risen just 8 percent after inflation, according to UC Berkeley’s Turner Center for Housing Innovation.

Surprisingly, housing may be one of those getting the most support from government—in part because there is already a severe housing shortage, which has put governments in charge of what has become the 1.3 million unit shortage of affordable housing for low income buyers in California, alone. California’s hopes to mitigate the shortage with last year’s $6 billion housing bill to provide more affordable housing.

The Census Bureau just reported sales of new U.S. single-family homes are up 14.3 percent from last February. And January’s new-home sales were already at a 12-1/2-year high. It is pointing to housing market strength that could help to blunt any hit on the economy from the coronavirus and keep the longest economic expansion in history on track.

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Calculated Risk

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell just two points to 72 in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment levels have held in a firm range in the low- to mid-70s for the past six months.

“Builder confidence remains solid, although sales expectations for the next six months dropped four points on economic uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus. Interest rates remain low,” says chief economist Robert Dietz, “and a lack of inventory creates market opportunities for single-family builders. However, down payment requirements are a limiting factor amid lower mortgage interest rates.”

But a housing market that remains healthy depends on a recovering economy, and we don’t know when that may be. Estimates run from 6 months to 18 months, if job loss estimates go to the 3 million extreme end of forecasts.

MarketWatch’s Jeffery Bartash reports a “flash” reading by the forecasting firm HIS Markit showed declines in its composite activity indexes. The manufacturing index slipped to 49.2 from 50.7, when anything below a reading of 50 indicates contraction. The flash service index sank to 39.1 in March from 49.4, marking the lowest level recorded since similar data became available in October 2009, IHS said.

“Although exports have suffered, most manufacturers continue to make necessary items, especially consumer goods for Americans stuck in their homes. Some large companies are even shifting production to help make critical medical equipment that’s in short supply,” said Bartash.

Why? Interest rates are plunging to new lows as investors rush to safe-haven bonds, driving down conforming 30-year fixed interest rates to as low as 3 percent.

This also caused refinance applications to surge more than 50 percent in a recent week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The housing market is in a holding pattern, in other words, with government aide a big factor, including directives not to evict renters behind in rent, or foreclose on homeowners behind in their payments for government-insured mortgages.

Harlan Green © 2020

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