Category Archives: Weekly Financial News

No Recession At All?

Popular Economics Weekly Ho hum, another good economic number. December retail sales are telling us why we have avoided a recession this year. It’s because consumers have increased rather than reduced their spending ways. Sales at retailers jumped +0.6 percent … Continue reading

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Why the Irrational Pessimism–Part II

Financial FAQs I said a week ago that public polls seem to be saying one thing, economic facts another. Real Clear Politics’ compendium of 11 opinion polls on whether participants approve or disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the economy … Continue reading

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First Signs of Deflation Appearing

The Mortgage Corner Today’s Producer Price Index for Final Demand, a measure of the cost of wholesale prices, provides the first concrete evidence that we may be entering a period of deflation this New Year. And, perhaps require the Fed … Continue reading

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Please Get Inflation Picture Right!

Financial FAQs Today’s news that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was “slightly hotter than expected”, per the Wall Street Journal, caused financial markets to plunge on the assumption the Fed will reduce interest rates more slowly than markets would like … Continue reading

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When Has Inflation Declined This Quickly?

The Mortgage Corner When was the last time inflation rates declined this steeply? You guessed right if you said the Great Recession. Calculated Risk’s colorful graph of various inflation indicators (gray bars are recessions) shows the history of Core CPI … Continue reading

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Still Fully Employed!

Popular Economics Weekly Ho hum. The U.S. economy was still fully employed in December. How boring! The St. Louis Fed (FRED) graph below shows the American economy has been at full employment since December 2021 when the unemployment rate first … Continue reading

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Q4 Growth Prospects Improve

The Mortgage Corner Prospects for better fourth quarter economic growth are improving. Why? Interest rates are declining along with inflation rates. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4 estimate of economic growth that I like just picked up steam after several downward … Continue reading

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Why the Irrational Pessimism?

Financial FAQs Public polls seem to be saying one thing, economic facts another. Real Clear Politics compendium of 11 opinion polls on whether participants approve or disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the economy show a negative -22.5 percent spread. … Continue reading

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No Recession Next Year?

Financial FAQs Fortune Magazine has come up with the most interesting reasons for a looming recession in a recent edition. “Here are six reasons why a recession remains Bloomberg Economics’ base case. They range from the wiring of the human … Continue reading

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It Wasn’t the Fed

Popular Economics Weekly What more does Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve Governors need to know to announce the inflation battle has been won? Its preferred inflation indicator has shown zero monthly increases for two months. The rate of U.S. … Continue reading

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