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MarketWatch

I said last month that the June labor market was hot. It was even hotter in July. Every industry in the Labor Department’s unemployment report had positive job growth in July, with Education and Health alone adding 122,000 jobs. Professional/Business, Leisure and Hospitality, and Government added another 242,000 jobs.

How is this possible with all the talk of a looming recession? Maybe the minus-1.25 percent negative cumulative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 was just a blip that may or may not have been a technical recession, and it’s already over?

Hiring was broad based as businesses created the most jobs in five months, said MarketWatch. And the number of people working finally returned to February 2020 levels — the last month before the pandemic (my emphasis). The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent, the government said Friday, matching the lowest level since the late 1960s.

Let us now see how much higher the Federal Reserve dares to push interest rates because of fears such robust hiring is a sign of surging growth, not the slowdown in demand it is attempting to engineer.

In fact, inflation is already declining, mainly because world oil prices have plunged, and food prices may also soften with the good news that grain shipments from the Ukraine have finally begun.

That’s in part because U.S. consumers’ expectations for where inflation will be in a year and three years dropped sharply in July, a New York Federal Reserve survey showed on Monday, as reported by Reuters, indicating U.S. central bankers might be winning the fight to keep the outlook for price growth as they battle to tame high inflation—although official CPI inflation numbers out later this week will confirm or deny whether said expectations are reliable.

“Median expectations for where inflation will be in one year tumbled 0.6 percentage point to 6.2 percent and the three-year outlook fell 0.4 percentage point to 3.2 percent, the lowest levels since February of this year and April of last year, respectively,” said Reuters.

For the one-year outlook, the fall in expectations was driven by big drops in year-ahead price growth changes for gasoline and food, with the decline in anticipated gasoline price growth being the second largest in the survey’s nine-year history and the decline in food price growth the largest ever.

In fact, the current hiring surge may be helpful to inflation. The inflation surge is mainly caused by supply shortages, and more jobs means more workers producing goods and services which increases the supply of things.

MarketWatch

But MarketWatch economist Rex Nutting is warning of one obstacle to continued jobs growth, a looming shortage of working-age adults, I said last week. The baby boomer population bulge of the 1970s has reached retirement age, and the millennials cohort of the 1990s, their offspring, will be approaching retirement age as well, as is seen in his graph of population growth rates.

“But now the tide is going out. Next year, the working-age population is expected to grow by just 400,000. In 2024, it’s expected to grow by 300,000 and by just 200,000 in 2025. The pool of workers will begin to grow a bit faster later in the decade and throughout the 2030s, but current projections through 2060 don’t foresee the labor supply returning to the same growth rate we’ve gotten used to over the past 70 years.”

And that means slowing economic growth as well, unless we allow more working-age adults to immigrate and invest in more productive technologies, since more workers producing more goods and services powers economic growth.

Harlan Green © 2022

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Financial FAQs

Calculated Risk

I was being a bit facetious last week when I said that calling a recession at this time because we may have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is almost irrelevant, because it may be over as quickly as the artificially induced two-month recession in April-May 2020, when the pandemic was building a head of steam.

But another indicator, the JOLTS report that measures the number of job openings (black line in graph) decreased to 10.7 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The slight decline in openings was too small to be conclusive of an extended downturn

Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) were little changed.

The number of job opening didn’t rise above the longer term normal of 6-7 million openings until January 2017, per the Calculated Risk graph. That is when economic growth began to take off, and it rose sharply to its current nosebleed range of 11 million openings after the two-month 2020 recession.

The number of hires (blue line) and Layoffs (red bar) leveled off and began to taper in January 2022 per the graph, so there began a slight downturn in job formation that could predict negative GDP growth in the first two quarters .

What better proxy for the beginning of a recession than the slowing of job growth? I also mentioned last week that consumer confidence was another good proxy, which is still in decline.

We will know more this Friday with release of the government’s July unemployment report. The rate has been below 4 percent since last December.

But we have now the just released ISM non-manufacturing survey of supply managers beginning to rise again. The ISM barometer of business conditions at companies such as restaurants and hotels that employ most workers rose to a three-month high of 56.7 percent in July, suggesting the economy is beginning to expand again in the face of growing headwinds.

“According to the Services PMI^®, 13 industries reported growth,” reported Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee. “The composite index indicated growth for the 26th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a faster rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 150 months. The slight increase in services sector growth was due to an increase in business activity and new orders.”

Orders and production rose, hiring improved and intense inflationary pressures eased somewhat last month, business executives told the Institute for Supply Management.

Even U.S. factory orders rose 2 percent in June, the government said Wednesday, in a report that offered some good news .Orders for durable goods made to last at least three years climbed a revised 2 percent in June, up from an initial 1.9 percent. Most of the increase was in autos and military planes. Orders for nondurable goods such as clothing and food products also rose 2 percent. Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft rose a revised 0.7 percent, up from the prior reading of a 0.5 percent gain. Manufacturers are growing more slowly as the economy decelerates, but they are still growing.

This means we could already have reached a ‘trough’ in growth, or the bottom of the down cycle. And that confuses things even further! Stay tuned for Friday’s unemployment report to know more.

Harlan Green © 2022

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Financial FAQs

Conference-Board.org

Calling a recession at this time because we may have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is almost irrelevant, because it may be over as quickly as the artificially induced 2-month recession in April-May 2020 (see thin gray bar in above graph) when the pandemic was building a head of steam.

Record growth followed last year because of the $6 trillion in government largesse, and consumers are beginning to have a hangover from the record spending spree that has ignited this inflation spike.

So how do we determine when and if the next recession that everyone is predicting will happen? I like to follow consumer confidence surveys, because as the above graph indicates, consumer confidence closely tracks recessions.

The Conference Board’s monthly survey has been trending down since January, just as has GDP growth. It’s the simplest way for the lay person to see the larger picture, since consumer spending makes up approximately two-thirds of economic growth—and it continued to decline in July.

The Conference Board just announced its Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, following a larger decline in June. The Index now stands at 95.7 (1985=100), down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 141.3 from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked down to 65.3 from 65.8. 

“Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.”

“As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July” continued Franco. “Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.”

U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation, so their ‘headache’ hasn’t yet spread to most businesses, as they continue to create jobs and the unemployment rate is still at a record low. It’s difficult to call a recession with a fully employed economy, in other words.

So, I’m going to make a rash prediction. This recession has already begun for the simple reason that growth has stalled, and several indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research are already trending down. Consumer spending and personal incomes are beginning to decline and industrial production is also slowing.

What has caused the inflation surge since February, and sudden rise in gas and food prices that worry consumers? The Ukraine invasion, of course, followed by China’s inability to control its own COVID epidemic.

We will reach bottom in this growth trough and begin to uptrend again when the Ukraine, Russia and China resolve their various issues that are restricting supplies of almost everything that consumers depend upon.

And who knows when this might happen? The whole world wants it to happen, so maybe enough pressure will be applied to end the Ukraine conflict and encourage China to fix its COVID problem so that the world can return to what is the real problem, global warming that has far worse consequences than a temporary and artificially induced recession.

Harlan Green © 2022

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Financial FAQs

FREDretailsales

U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation, which could allay fears of an imminent recession but not change the view that economic growth in the second quarter was tepid, if not slightly negative.

Is it good enough to stave off a recession next year? Consumer spending drives almost two-thirds of economic growth, with retail sales half of spending. The post-pandemic spending spike has slowly subsided from a 100-mph speed aided by government subsidies to its present 60-mph cruising speed, as I said last week; still above average per the FRED graph.

This depends in part on the inflation picture, of course, which will slowly subside as the supply-shocks diminish. Gas prices, for instance, have dropped more than 40 cents over the past month, which is a large part of the recent inflation surge.

Reuters reports the nearly broad increase in retail sales last month was led by receipts at auto dealerships, which rebounded 0.8 percent after declining 3.0 percent in May amid shortages. Sales at service stations increased 3.6 percent.

“Gasoline prices surged in June, averaging above $5 per gallon,” said Reuters, “according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA. Prices at the pump have since declined from last month’s record peaks and were averaging $4.577 per gallon on Friday.

Receipts at bars and restaurants, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.0 percent, another sign of strength. There were strong gains in sales at furniture and electronics and appliance retailers. Receipts at sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments, and bookstores also rose. Online store sales rebounded 2.2 percent.

The annual CPI retail rate in the US accelerated to 9.1 percent in June of 2022, the highest since November of 1981, from 8.6 percent in May and above market forecasts of 8.8 percent.

It was mainly energy prices that rose 41.6 percent, the most since April 1980, boosted by gasoline (59.9 percent), fuel oil (98.5 percent), electricity (13.7 percent, the largest increase since April 2006), and natural gas (38.4 percent, the largest increase since October 2005).

Consumer spending is keeping up with inflation to date, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) still up 7.2 percent overall, 5.2 percent YoY without more volatile food and energy prices, which is causing most of the current inflationary spike.

Concern about inflation eased in July alongside a sharp drop in gasoline prices over the past month, reports the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Thanks to Paul Krugman and the NY Times for this graph showing the gradual decrease in 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations, an important indicator of how consumers might behave if higher inflation isn’t prolonged.

Krugman/NYTimes

The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumers for July published on Friday showed consumers see inflation running at 2.8 percent over a five-year horizon, the lowest in a year and down from 3.1 percent in June. Their one-year outlook for price increases moderated to 5.2 percent from 5.3 percent a month earlier and was the lowest since February.

Inflation worries are still causing the whipsaw in financial market prices. So, how long can this surge in prices last, given the Ukraine war, China’s COVID problems, and the ongoing pandemic restrictions?

Even if growth continues to slow further, consumers are saying they are optimistic enough about the future, for now, to avoid a recession.

Harlan Green © 2022

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen

Financial FAQs

Tradingeconomics.com

Not all inflation endangers economic growth but the short answer is when inflation becomes so prolonged that consumers can no longer afford to consume. And that hasn’t happened yet, with consumer spending still at pandemic highs.

The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 9.1 percent in June of 2022, the highest since November of 1981, from 8.6 percent in May and above market forecasts of 8.8 percent.

It was mainly energy prices that rose 41.6 percent, the most since April 1980, boosted by gasoline (59.9 percent), fuel oil (98.5 percent), electricity (13.7 percent, the largest increase since April 2006), and natural gas (38.4 percent, the largest increase since October 2005).

FREDpce

Consumer spending may have peaked but has yet to decline substantially in May. It is still up 7.2 percent overall, 5.2 percent YoY without more volatile food and energy prices per the FRED graph, which is causing most of the current inflationary spike.

So, how long can this surge in prices last, given the Ukraine war, China’s COVID problems, and the ongoing pandemic restrictions?

President Joe Biden on Wednesday said in a statement that while a “headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date,” as he reacted to a report showing a year-over-year rise of 9.1% for the consumer price index in June. “Today’s data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June,”

The fact that inflation may soften sometime in the future is a tough sell and hard for consumers to believe. What should we believe about the danger of longer-term inflation?

The analogy that I used last week that best describes current economic conditions (and inflation) is we are in a race to recover from COVID-19 while a European war is raging. The U.S. economy has slowed from a warp speed of 100 mph as it shot out of the pandemic to 60 mph, as it returns to a more normal growth mode.

Gas and oil prices are moderating because most of the oil-producing companies and countries have increased production for the simple reason that they are making record profits.

And consumers will slowly cut back on spending as prices continue to rise across the board. Friday’s retail sales figures for June will tell us how much consumers are cutting back. If spending is slowing, perhaps the Fed will also slow down their next boost to rates.

Harlan Green © 2022

Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen