Fewer Foreclosures Boosting Housing Prices

The Mortgage Corner

Calculated Risk just reported that Lender Processing Services (LPS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for July with some good news. According to LPS, 7.03 percent of mortgages were delinquent in July, down from 7.14 percent in June, and down from 7.80 percent in July 2011.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

LPS reports that 4.08 percent of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down slightly from 4.09 percent in June, and down slightly from 4.11 percent in July 2011.
This gives a total of 11.12 percent delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,960,000 loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1,560,000 loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2,042,000 loans in foreclosure process.

“Nationally, 18 percent of borrowers who are current on their loan payments are ‘underwater’ (owing more on the mortgage than the home’s current market value),” continued Calculated Risk from a Herb Blecher report, “ranging from a low of 0.4 percent in Wyoming to nearly 55 percent in Nevada. As negative equity increases, we see corresponding increases in the number of new problem loans. In Nevada and Florida, two of the states with the highest percentage of underwater borrowers, more than three percent of borrowers who were up to date on their payments are 60 or more days delinquent six months later. This suggests that further home price declines – should they occur – could jeopardize recent improvements.”

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Graph: Calculated Risk

But we are seeing that real estate prices are beginning to climb in those same states that gained, then lost the most equity during the bubble and consequent bust. “Home prices gained in the second quarter,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices. “In this month’s report all three composites and all 20 cities improved both in June and through the entire second quarter of 2012. All 20 cities and both monthly Composites rose for the second consecutive month. It would have been a third consecutive month had we not seen home prices fall in Detroit back in April.”

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Graph: Calculated Risk

And Housing Wire reports that “a sustained uptick in home prices in more metros caused the number of improving housing markets across the nation to rise to 99 in September from 80 the previous month, according to the National Association of Home Builders and First American Home Price Index.

This is while there are already principal reductions happening for the non-Fannie and Freddie home loans. Billions worth of mortgages once handled by Saxon Mortgage Services received more principal write downs since Ocwen Financial Corp. took over the portfolio.

Ocwen, now the largest subprime servicer in the U.S., completed its October 2011 acquisition of Saxon from Morgan Stanley in April 2012.More than $22 billion in mortgages transferred through the deal.

Just 11 percent of all modifications done on these loans included a principal reduction as of May. But in the three months since, Ocwen wrote down principal on 56 percent of modifications on Saxon loans, according to Laurie Goodman, chief analyst at Amherst Securities.

So now we are waiting for implementation of the recent National Mortgage Settlement Act that Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, Ally, and JPMorgan Chase agreed to. Among other things, it appropriates $25 billion to both settle borrowers’ claims of fraudulent foreclosure practices, but also help homeowners needing loan modifications now, including first and second lien principal reduction that aren’t Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac insured.  (Those mortgages are covered by the HARP 2.0 loan modification program).  The servicers are required to work off up to $17 billion in principal reduction loan modifications and other forms of loss mitigation nationwide. Eligible borrowers will by contacted by the Servicers and will receive letters offering principal reductions or other modifications starting in June 2012.  This modification process will continue for approximately 3 years.

For loan modifications and refinance options, borrowers may be contacted directly by one of the five participating mortgage servicers. Keeping in mind the timeline above, you may contact the banks directly if you need additional information:

Harlan Green © 2012

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August Jobs Report—Manufacturing Slowdown

Popular Economics Weekly

The headlines said a “weak” job report on Friday. But it had nothing to do with politics or economic policy, at least directly. The jobs drop was all in manufacturing due to problems in Europe and China. So it’s really up to consumers to continue to open their pocketbooks over the holidays to keep this economy going, and that is happening to some extent.

But indirectly, government payrolls are still shrinking. And government investment as well as consumer spending are the twin engines of economic growth these days, which is the major reason we have 2 percent, instead of 3 percent GDP growth at this stage of the recovery.

There were just 96,000 payroll jobs added in August, with 103,000 private sector jobs added, and 7,000 government jobs lost. A meager total much below the first part of the year. The unemployment rate decreased to 8.1 percent (from the household survey), and the participation rate declined to 63.5 percent, mostly from the decline in manufacturing employment, which depends on exports which have flagged of late.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

This can be traced to both the European recession, since 25 percent of U.S. exports go to Europe, and China’s growth slowdown. Manufacturing had been leading the recovery until now. But the service sector has taken over, with 119,000 service sector payroll jobs added and 15,000 manufacturing jobs lost in August; half of which were auto manufacturing that will spring back in the fall. And since the service sector accounts for 70 percent of total nonfarm payrolls, this means consumers are spending again, which is enough to keep us out of another recession.

So the economy has added 1.11 million jobs over the first eight months of the year (1.21 million private sector jobs), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At this pace, the economy would add around 1.8 million private sector jobs in 2012; less than the 2.1 million added in 2011. Also, at this pace of payroll job growth, the unemployment rate will probably still be above 8 percent at the end of the year, says Calculated Risk.

The August ISM Non-manufacturing index for the service sector was at 53.7 percent, up from 52.6 percent in July. The employment index increased in August to 53.8 percent, up from 49.3 percent in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

Meanwhile, manufacturing has been slowing and until it picks up again the service sector will be the main engine of growth. The outlook for the nation’s manufacturing sector is increasingly going into reverse based on the ISM’s report where new orders, at a sub-50 level of 47.1 in August, show their third straight monthly contraction and at the deepest rate since April 2009. New export orders are definitely part of the problem, at 47.0 for what is also the third straight month of contraction. Manufacturers, as they wait for new orders to return, are increasingly drawing down their backlogs which are at 42.5 for the fifth straight month of contraction.

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Graph: Econoday

This is no coincidence, as the EU economy is back in recession, having contracted in the second quarter—April to June. And with the German and Nordic countries insisting on more austerity for Spain and Italy, it’s third and fourth largest economies, economic contraction will continue, putting more downward pressure on manufacturing. The two bright spots are in transportation—domestic aircraft and vehicle manufacturing—which are surging.

So the economic news is mixed, with consumers continuing to spend, retail sales up, but exports down. This will boost certain sectors, mainly the consumer sectors in the service industries. But given that employment in private service-producing industries is currently 93,496,000 vs. just 18,744,000 in private goods-producing sector (i.e., manufacturing) when seasonally adjusted, the hurt in Europe in particular won’t cramp overall growth.

However, the bottom line is that we need more stimulus spending, in part to help states rebalance their budgets. The debt problem will take care of itself, because any job creation programs at all will increase the demand for goods and services, which in turn increases tax revenues. Austerity is not the answer with U.S. or in Europe when the unemployment rates are so high. The consensus among economists is that our unemployment rate has to drop below 6 percent to come anywhere near the 3.25 percent ‘trend’ growth of recent years that would bring back prosperity. But without a Congress willing to act on job creation, this won’t happen.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Henry Ford’s Arithmetic Would Cure Budget Deficit

The Financial FAQs

Why don’t Republicans get it? As President Clinton said in his convention speech, there was one word to explain the difference between Republican and Democrats budget proposals—arithmetic. The numbers had to add up, and as a ‘good old boy’ from Arkansas, he knew that 2 plus 2 equals 4, whereas Republicans couldn’t, or wouldn’t do the arithmetic.

“We Democrats — we think the country works better with a strong middle class, with real opportunities for poor folks to work their way into it with a relentless focus on the future, with business and government actually working together to promote growth and broadly share prosperity,” he said. You see, we believe that “we’re all in this together” is a far better philosophy than “you’re on your own.”

“So who’s right? Well, since 1961, for 52 years now, the Republicans have held the White House 28 years, the Democrats, 24. In those 52 years, our private economy has produced 66 million private sector jobs. So what’s the job score? Republicans, 24 million; Democrats, 42 (million).”

Even Henry Ford knew his arithmetic back in 1914, said Hedrick Smith in a recent New York Times Op-ed, when Ford raised his employees’ pay to the “unheard of sum of $5 per day” in 1914. Henry Ford knew that boosting his employees’ incomes created more wealth for everyone.

“Not only was it a matter of social justice, Ford wrote, but paying high wages was also smart business,” said Hedrick. “When wages are low, uncertainty dogs the marketplace and growth is weak. But when pay is high and steady, Ford asserted, business is more secure because workers earn enough to become good customers. They can afford to buy Model Ts.”

This incredibly self-evident truth has been lost by the apostles of smaller government, who have not only worked to diminish the role of government, but labor as well with their attacks on collective bargaining and union organizing in general. And that is why the Great Recession is turning into the worst recovery.

“From 1948 to 1973, the productivity of all nonfarm workers nearly doubled, as did average hourly compensation,” said Smith. “But things changed dramatically starting in the late 1970s. Although productivity increased by 80.1 percent from 1973 to 2011, average wages rose only 4.2 percent and hourly compensation (wages plus benefits) rose only 10 percent over that time, according to government data analyzed by the Economic Policy Institute.”

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Graph: DShort.com.

Republicans have forgotten Henry Ford, have forgotten that consumers make up 70 percent of all economic activity, and cannot boost the recovery with the diminished incomes of today. In fact, they have been hurt most by pro-business policies that have suppressed wage and salary growth, while lowering tax rates for business and the wealthiest since 1970s.

This is a little-known fact. Consumers have been driving economic growth since the 1920s, when we switched from an industrial society that made things, to a service-oriented economy that serviced people and things, while most manufacturing migrated overseas with its cheaper labor. Historical economists, such as Rutgers’ James Livingston, say that a combination of consumer and government spending created most of the growth between 1900 and 2000, rather than capital investment from the private sector.

Yet, economic growth has declined steadily since the 1970s to its current 3.3 percent annual average. This is at the same time that incomes have skewed upward so that incomes of the top 5 percent of earners have approximately doubled since the 1970s, whereas incomes of the middle and lower quintiles (i.e., 20 percent segments) have basically remained flat.

So conservatives and the even more conservative Republican Party forgot Henry Ford’s arithmetic. Who could afford to buy his Model T’s, otherwise? Big Business has concentrated on enriching themselves, including the investor class and CEOs, while neglecting to build the incomes of the real consumers who generate most effective, or aggregate demand for their goods and services. The resultant income inequality has not only damaged domestic economic growth, but demoralized those consumers who could do most to invigorate the economy.

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Graph: DShort.com

This is while corporations have accumulated almost unlimited power over the past 30 years that has given them the highest profits in history as a percentage of GDP. And now the Supreme Court’s Citizen’s United allows them unlimited political contributions to tilt the playing field even more in their favor with the $2 trillion cash hoard accumulated because of those profits.

This should be a no-brainer, getting the arithmetic . Big Business interests should know that spreading their wealth around would further enrich themselves as well, but they got into the lobbying business in a big way, which is documented in Jacob S Hacker and Paul Pierson’s Winner Take All Politics, How Washington Made the Rich Richer—and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class, and now effectively control two branches of government.

So part of the solution is obvious. Get Henry Ford’s arithmetic right. Restore to government its necessary powers to regulate the economy, maintain the safety net and, yes, re-distribute wealth to where it will do the most good—raise our educational standing in the world, boost research and development that we may retain our technological leadership as Henry Ford envisioned so long ago, and above all look out for the welfare of all wage earners, not just the few.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Repubs Platform—Reverse Robin Hoodism

The Financial FAQs

Reagan Budget Director David Stockman and even President Obama have called it the reverse the Robin Hood effect, or taking the meager wealth from the poorest to give to the wealthiest. Because the Tea Party has created the Republican election platform, their agenda has been laid bare, which is a blatant effort to suppress the wages and salaries of 80 percent of our workforce. This after more than 200 years of government working for both the advantaged and disadvantaged.

The Republican platform no longer even tries to hide what they want to do–make the poor and middle classes even poorer by shrinking the social safety net, as well as restrict or outright ban collective bargaining of both public and private sector employees.

It is unbelievable, but true. Their platform even includes removing all restrictions on assault rifles, with no limits on magazine sizes, and taking away a woman’s freedom to choose her own health care options, including contraception.

They are doing it in their time-tested way, playing the blame game again. As Rick Santorum said in his convention speech—“Almost half of Americans are on some form of government assistance,” implying that the poorest among US are too lazy to work. But most who receive government aid have retired on social security and Medicare, with very few on welfare, thanks to Clinton’s welfare reform that required welfare recipients to find work.

In fact, playing the blame game is their attempt to direct attention away from their own wholesale draining of the public coffers with tax breaks for the wealthiest that continue to increase the federal deficit, while income inequality is already at record levels. They would even make it worse under the Paul Ryan’s budget proposals by continuing to cut taxes, as well as social security, Medicare, education, and environmental protection programs.

Meanwhile defense spending would increase from some $500 trillion to over $900 trillion in 10 years by some estimates, if we follow Ryan’s prescription,  when we are the only super-power. This includes 9 super-carriers when no other country has even one.

What best confirms the Republican Party’s outright suppression of wages and salaries is the change in labor laws that have happened since at least 1980, when President Reagan disbanded the FAA Air Traffic Controllers Union, after only 4 days of negotiations.

In a just released report by the Center for Policy and Research, “Protecting Fundamental Labor Rights: Lessons from Canada for the United States,” begins with a comparison of the current state of organized labor in the United States and Canada.  It notes that, from the 1920s to about 1960, Canada and the United States had roughly the same unionization rates. But in 1960, the two began to diverge. As of 2011, the unionization rate in Canada stood at 29.7 percent, compared to less than half that in the U.S., at 11.8 percent.

While Canada and the U.S. both have elections as one route to forming unions, Canadian workers in several provinces also have the much faster option of card-check certification. Under card check, once a majority of employees signs cards in support of unionizing, an employer is required by law to recognize their union. . While the United States, however, workers must first file a petition showing support for unionizing and then vote to unionize in an election before an employer is required to recognize their union, unless an employer voluntarily recognizes a union.

And this can take months, during which companies are able to employ tactics to intimidate their workers. “During this time, U.S. employers usually engage in anti-union campaigns, often committing illegal acts – such as threatening to close the workplace or threatening to fire workers – to discourage them from voting to form a union,” said the report . “In fact, workers were illegally fired in about 30 percent of certification elections in 2007. Unfortunately, the legal response to such practices is slow and ineffective.”

Even more damning is the direct suppression of wages in the 23 right to work states  that say workers don’t even have to join a union, or outright banning collective bargaining of public workers, such as teachers, police and fireman, in Wisconsin, which other states are attempting to emulate.

For instance, A February 2011 Economic Policy Institute study found:

  • Wages in right-to-work states are 3.2 percent lower than those in non-RTW states, after controlling for a full complement of individual demographic and socioeconomic variables as well as state macroeconomic indicators. Using the average wage in non-RTW states as the base ($22.11), the average full-time, full-year worker in an RTW state makes about $1,500 less annually than a similar worker in a non-RTW state.
  • The rate of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) is 2.6 percentage points lower in RTW states compared with non-RTW states, after controlling for individual, job, and state-level characteristics. If workers in non-RTW states were to receive ESI at this lower rate, 2 million fewer workers nationally would be covered.
  • The rate of employer-sponsored pensions is 4.8 percentage points lower in RTW states, using the full complement of control variables in [the study’s] regression model. If workers in non-RTW states were to receive pensions at this lower rate, 3.8 million fewer workers nationally would have pensions.

The damage to economic growth is considerable when the 80 percent of Americans who are wage and salary earners have not been able to boost their incomes sufficiently to grow the economy. The facts are daunting. Income inequality has been growing since the 1970s—so much so that economic growth will continue to suffer, unless workers have sufficient bargaining power to begin to grow their incomes again.  But that can’t happen unless/until they recognize who is blocking their path to greater prosperity.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Pending Home Sales, Prices Up For the Year

The Mortgage Corner

Home prices are finally rising nationally, according to same sales in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It showed that all three headline composites ended the second quarter of 2012 with positive annual growth rates for the first time since the summer of 2010. The national composite was up 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2012 versus the second quarter of 2011, and was up 6.9 percent versus the first quarter of 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted respective annual returns of +0.1 percent and +0.5 percent in June 2012.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

“Home prices gained in the second quarter,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In this month’s report all three composites and all 20 cities improved both in June and through the entire second quarter of 2012. All 20 cities and both monthly Composites rose for the second consecutive month. It would have been a third consecutive month had we not seen home prices fall in Detroit back in April.”

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Graph: Calculated Risk

And the National Association of Realtors reported that the Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 101.7 in July from 99.3 in June and is 12.4 percent above July 2011 when it was 90.5. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the index is at the highest level since April 2010, which was shortly before the closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit. “While the month-to-month movement has been uneven, more importantly we now have 15 consecutive months of year-over-year gains in contract activity,” Yun said.

While not yet overwhelming, the real estate recovery will continue to spur growth, with construction spending also up some 7 percent in the year. But lower inventories are the key, and Realtors are reporting rising prices and multiple offers in most of the metropolitan areas.

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Graph: Econoday

The FHFA house price index for homes financed with conforming mortgages extended a run of gains including a 0.7 percent rise for June. Year-on-year, the index is up 3.6 percent, which is slightly lower than May’s upward revised 3.8 percent but otherwise well above prior months. Seven of the 9 regions posted gains in June led by a 3.5 percent rise in the Mountain region and followed by a 1.1 percent rise in the West North Central region. It showed very small changes in the West South Central and New England regions.

What can we say? That employment and personal incomes have increased enough, in combination with record low interest rates, to increase confidence that this economic malaise is finally coming to an end.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Real Estate Leading Recovery—Part II

The Mortgage Corner

Further evidence that real estate is recovering is the drop in both vacancy rates and so-called Real Estate Owned (REO) properties—i.e., that banks have taken back in foreclosure. Several analysts, including Calculated Risk, believe this is absorbing much of the excess housing inventory that has been depressing prices.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

Existing-home sales represent more than 90 percent of the market so they are the best measure of housing inventory. Inventory decreased 23 percent year-over-year in July from July 2011. It is the seventeenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and near the largest year-over-year decline reported. Months of supply decreased to 6.4 months in July from 6.6 percent in June. Listed inventory is 24.4 percent below a year ago when there was a 9.1-month supply.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

Existing-home sales increased 2.3 percent in July from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. The month’s sales were 10.4 percent above the same month a year earlier.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said housing affordability conditions are very good.  “Mortgage interest rates have been at record lows this year while rents have been rising at faster rates.  Combined, these factors are helping to unleash a pent-up demand,” he said.  “However, the market is constrained by unnecessarily tight lending standards and shrinking inventory supplies, so housing could easily be much stronger without these abnormal frictions.”

While not yet overwhelming, the real estate recovery will continue to spur growth, with construction spending also up some 7 percent in the year. But lower inventories are the key, and Realtors are reporting rising prices and multiple offers in most of the metropolitan areas.

Lawrence Yun said inventory shortages are a factor.  “Buyer interest remains strong but fewer home listings mean fewer contract signing opportunities,” Yun said.  “We’ve been seeing a steady decline in the level of housing inventory, which is most pronounced in the lower price ranges popular with first-time buyers and investors.”

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Graph: FHFA

Hence the higher prices. Lastly, home prices climbed 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, following a revised 0.6 percent increase in May, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Thursday. In the 12 months through June, prices rose 3.6 percent, the agency said. The FHFA purchase-only index is based on transactions bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac for so-called conforming mortgages.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Increased Consumer Spending a Good Sign

Financial FAQs

The most recent retail sales show consumers are able to spend more, even as they borrow more. Add to that credit card delinquencies are at an 18-year low, according to credit reporting company Transunion Corp., and we have a picture of an improving economy. This is, the fact that consumers can continue to cure their debt problems, while spending more, is a good sign.

“The national credit card delinquency rate continues to remain at the lowest levels we’ve observed in 18 years,” said Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “It’s a positive situation because average borrower balances have increased over the past year as new card originations have grown.”

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Graph: Econoday

Retail sales soared in July. Total sales rose 0.8 percent for the strongest rise since February with ex-auto sales also up 0.8 percent for, again, the best showing since February. All components show gains including motor vehicles, general merchandise, health & personal care, furniture, and restaurants. Clothing also shows a significant gain, one that points to strength for the back-to-school season. Ex-auto ex-gas the gain is 0.9 percent for the best showing since January, said Econoday.

This was predicted by the surge in consumer borrowing. Total credit outstanding rose $6.5 billion in June, following a $16.7 billion jump the month before, reported the Federal Reserve. The latest gain was led by non-revolving credit, gaining $10.2 billion in June after a $9.2 billion rise in May. Non-revolving credit is mostly for motor vehicle purchases and student loans.

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Graph: Econoday

What is behind greater consumer spending is the consumer feels better about the economy despite the recent run up in gasoline prices. Apparently it is due to a somewhat improved jobs picture with 163,000 net payroll jobs created in July. Strength was in the consumer’s assessment of current conditions which was up solidly at 87.6 versus July’s 82.7. This gain also underscores the improvement seen in weekly jobless claims, which are now down in the 350,000 range from more than 400,000 last year.

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Graph: Econoday

So there are signs that the recovery may be gaining a little more strength—emphasis on little, however.  The Conference Board’s July index of leading economic indicators rebounded 0.4 percent, offsetting the June decline of 0.4 percent. It is at its highest level since February 2007, which should boost consumer confidence even higher.

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Graph: Econoday

The improvement in jobless claims, which points to improvement in underlying job growth, together with improvement in building permits led the increase in the overall index with each component having a contribution of 0.18 percentage points.

Also with positive contributions were the report’s credit reading, the stock market, and the report’s imputed readings for new orders on both consumer and capital goods which are government data that have yet to be released, said Econoday.

So July was a good month for consumers, and points to further economic improvement for holiday retail sales, which should drive economic growth for the rest of the year. So consumers seem to be focusing more on improving their own financial condition, rather than the discouraging news about China, Europe, and a deadlocked Congress.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Consumer Spending Continues to Improve

FINANCIAL FAQs

The most recent retail sales show consumers continue to spend, as consumer borrowing is increasing. Add to that credit card delinquencies are at an 18-year low, according to credit reporting company Transunion Corp., and we have a picture of an improving economy.

“The national credit card delinquency rate continues to remain at the lowest levels we’ve observed in 18 years,” said Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “It’s a positive situation because average borrower balances have increased over the past year as new card originations have grown.”

Retail sales soared in July. Total sales rose 0.8 percent for the strongest rise since February with ex-auto sales also up 0.8 percent for, again, the best showing since February. All components show gains including motor vehicles, general merchandise, health & personal care, furniture, and restaurants. Clothing also shows a significant gain, one that points to strength for the back-to-school season. Ex-auto ex-gas the gain is 0.9 percent for the best showing since January, said Econoday.

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Graph: Econoday

This was predicted by the surge in consumer borrowing. Total credit outstanding rose $6.5 billion in June, following a $16.7 billion jump the month before, reported the Federal Reserve. The latest gain was led by non-revolving credit, gaining $10.2 billion in June after a $9.2 billion rise in May. Non-revolving credit is mostly for motor vehicle purchases and student loans. 

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Graph: Econoday

What is behind greater consumer spending is they continue to improve their financial position. Personal income in June gained 0.5 percent, following an advance of 0.3 percent the prior month.  The wages & salaries component also showed strength, rising 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in May.

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Graph: Econoday

And with 163,000 net payrolls jobs added in July, their condition should continue to improve. Both the goods-producing and service-providing sectors added jobs. Goods-producing jobs indicate that manufacturing is doing better than monthly surveys suggest.  Total goods-producing jobs rose 24,000 in July after a 13,000 gain the prior month.  Manufacturing rose 25,000 after a 10,000 boost in June.

So even the drag from Europe’s austerity-induced recession hasn’t kept American consumers down. Even housing is showing signs of life, with the NAHB’s builder confidence survey at its highest level since February 2007, which should boost consumer confidence even higher.

Harlan Green © 2012

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It’s Ryancare vs. Obamacare

POPULAR ECONOMICS WEEKLY

Will Ryancare replace Obamacare? Ryancare could become the campaign buzzword with Mitt Romney’s choice of Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan as his Vice Presidential candidate. Ryancare is bringing budget-cutting austerity that Paul Ryan once called his “Path to Prosperity” budget proposals now endorsed by two Republican-led House majorities, vs. President Obama’s program of stimulus spending via health care, infrastructure repair, and job creation.

Yet history says Ryancare won’t work. It is a battle between almost polar opposites—government austerity vs. government stimulus—when the two must work together to bring back prosperity to the 80 percent of us who are wage earners that have lost out on this recovery.

Romney has come off the fence, in other words, since being Massachusetts’s governor that supported abortion and universal health care. Mitt has said during the campaign that he supported Ryancare, which “will greatly shrink the government, largely undoing the social safety net by shifting more costs onto individuals and essentially converting Medicare into a capped voucher program. It would also alter the progressive income tax system, which, like the safety net, was built through the 20th century under Republican as well as Democratic presidents,” said the New York Times.

So Ryancare is really about more austerity when we know the track record of austerity programs. The latest is England’s Conservative Party program that has returned it into recession with their program to slash government spending while lowering taxes for the wealthy, thus starving the government of revenues during the euro crisis. Only President Clinton was able to slow government spending while balancing the federal budget. He did it by raising taxes back to pre-Reagan rates for the highest income brackets, while slashing defense spending.

In fact, though few economists will admit it, Republican economic policies since 1980 based on slashing tax rates have been disastrous for economic growth and budget deficits, which is why President Reagan had to raise taxes 11 times during his tenure.

While GW Bush helped to create the largest federal deficit since World War II with his tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 that starved the government of revenues at a time when spending soared. The historical fact remains: the recessions, President Bush’s tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years.

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Graph: CBPP. Org

“In fact, the deficit for fiscal year 2009 — which began more than three months before President Obama’s inauguration — was $1.4 trillion and, at 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest deficit relative to the economy since the end of World War II,” said the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank.

So is it just coincidence that the historical record also shows all recessions since 1980 have occurred during Republican administrations? The recession score (gray shadings)—Presidents’ Reagan and GW Bush two recessions, GHW Bush, Sr. one, and Democrats zero.

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Graph: Calculated Risk Blog

If austerity in the guise of slashing taxes to shrink government isn’t the answer, then what is? That, also, is no secret to most economic historians, at least. Promote economic growth in both the private and public sectors. It turns out that growth has been greatest when tax revenues were higher, because those revenues also boosted private sector growth. How so? Through almost too many ways to be counted—via boosting spending on education, environmental protection, infrastructure, and Research and Development.

President Clinton proved it with his 23 million jobs created and 4 years of actual budget surpluses. In other words, all those public tax dollars boost growth, while the historical record shows that the Bush and Reagan tax cuts benefited the wealthiest; including those corporate CEO’s whose salaries and benefits have gone through the roof, leaving their own employees with little to spend.

And so does social welfare spending, which should be a no-brainer. Medicare and social security have almost no overhead, so that more than 95 percent of revenues flow to the elderly and health care providers, which boosts job growth in the health care professions, as well as consumer spending.

“Nonpartisan analyses of Mr. Ryan’s proposed income tax cuts reached conclusions much like those of Mr. Romney’s tax proposals in recent weeks’” said the same New York Times column. “The tax cuts in Paul Ryan’s 2013 budget plan would result in huge benefits for high-income people and very modest — or no — benefits for low-income working households,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, a policy research organization, wrote in summarizing the findings of the Tax Policy Center.

Thus we have the consequences of Ryancare, or shall we now call it Romneycare, which will provide very little care for most Americans.

Harlan Green © 2012

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Real Estate Now Leading Recovery

The Mortgage Corner

Can it be that real estate will give a boost to the next stage of the U.S. recovery? Exports, and so manufacturing has stalled due to the China and European slowdown. Multiple indexes show rising real estate prices, as inventories of both market and delinquent properties continue to decline. And consumer incomes have risen of late, so real estate may be a better investment than the 0 percent interest banks are willing to pay these days.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.5 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011, says Corelogic’s June Home Price Index, which closely follows the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, without seasonal adjustments. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.3 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012, a huge jump. “The June 2012 figures mark the fourth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis,” said Corelogic.

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Graph: Calculated Risk Blog

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 3.2 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.0 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012, the fifth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

And Calculated Risk reports that housing inventories have dropped as much as 22.7 percent in one year, according to the National Association of Realtors. “On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then starts to increase again through the summer. Inventory only increased a little this spring and has been declining for the last three months by this measure. It looks like inventory has peaked for this year,” said Calculated Risk.

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Graph: Calculated Risk

This decline in active inventory is a huge story. The lower level of inventory has to be a major reason housing prices are rising, needless to say. But the rise in personal incomes of late also has to be a factor. Personal income in June gained 0.5 percent, following an advance of 0.3 percent the prior month.  Wages & salaries also showed strength, rising 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in May.

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Graph: Econoday

Lastly, the Labor Department’s June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report (JOLTS) may be boosting consumers’ confidence. It showed 3.76 million job openings in June, which the Labor Dept. characterizes as “little changed” from 3.66 million in May, but is up from 2.4 million job openings at the low point in June 2009.

Harlan Green © 2012

Posted in Economy, Housing, housing market, Weekly Financial News | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment